As the financial system its management horizons elongate

Growth in the 1970s, some wanted to replace the criterion of the gross national product (GNP) of gross national happiness (GNH). The most recent debate on sustainable development has drawn attention to the qualitative elements of growth next to its components immediately quantified; It also quickly became here that, in line with the "social indicators" once advocated by Jacques Delors, would now in many areas by the progress to be made in quality "quantization".

It is in this way that started the beeps by constructing three scenarios on the horizon of 2035. The central role of the traditional growth is obviously not forgotten and his exploration is even completed which is not usual with a focus on the future evolution of the heritage. But beyond the projection of national accounts appear various indicators concerning, for example, the insertion of young people in active life, taking in charge of periods of dependence, the evolution of the free time of assets and, of course, that the quality of the environment.

Each of the three scenarios studied refers to different behaviors of the main economic actors: households, businesses, public authorities and financial institutions. A first scenario, referred to as "Compromised the wire of the water", introduced sensitive changes in behaviours actors over the past years. The effective age of retirement increases very slowly, the welfare state expectations remain strong, public employment did not decrease. Despite the continuation of certain reforms, it does not escape, including a VAT increase, to avoid too strong drift of the accounts of the France.

In the second scenario ("tensions: social protection shifted to the company"), individuals camped on their acquired, including retirement, and reduce their savings to maintain their level of consumption. Public authorities discharge on the part of social welfare businesses. They then seek to reduce costs yet increasing productivity investments and increasing recourse to foreign contracting, which is obviously not to support employment. SMEs, in particular, are undermined and in the sectors directly open to competition, good number of retirements are replaced by jobs offshored.

The third scenario ("new arbitration") reveals, however, quite different behaviour of the authorities. Individuals, sensitive to the "value" of collective services, are willing to pay a larger share of their price and, on the other hand, save earlier in the cycle of life to a pension which begins elsewhere later. The reform of the State becomes a reality and, thanks to savings made, part of the VAT can be shifted to social protection. As the financial system, its management horizons elongate.

In terms of economic growth, the first scenario highlights performance of GDP per capita (excluding inflation) of 1.5 per year, which is less than the "potential" that calculate economists. The second is plunging head-to-1.1 growth. The third 1.7 allows us to. We can estimate that these differences between the three scenarios are relatively small: maintained on nearly a third of century, she dig However considerable gaps between followed by roads and reveal a margin of freedom that remain ours, even with quite accessible rates of growth.

With respect to the heritage of the household, he continues, in three scenarios, grow faster than incomes, but report heritage-income growth is significantly slower than the Decade 1995-2005. In addition, this report increases in the "Tensions" scenario, if primarily because income grows slowly, while in "New arbitration", that is, for many, because households save more.

But these scenarios are characterized mainly by different performance with respect to the societal indicators. Thus, in the "New arbitration" scenario, compensation of less than 25 years approximates significantly because of integration mean in the world of work. Similarly, scenarios, free time and working time are divided differently in age and in the "Compromise" scenario, for example, the level of activity of young people is clearly below what it is in "new arbitrations. For quality of the environment, the performance of the latter are also significantly higher than those that emerge from the two other scenarios.

All the sounds scenarios are likely. In terms of "sustainability", they do however appear significant differences: "Compromise" lets wait beyond 2035, a very dull future. In "Tensions", cannot exclude a major crisis before this term. Only the last scenario, by introducing new balances in our society, challenges our country on a path which would lie the "déclinologues".