The transition period is extremely fragile

Temporary, targeted and reversible. The Government had insisted on December 4, at the presentation of the stimulus package, on his willingness to implement measures having an immediate impact on the economy, but that can pause then, in the light of the magnitude of the deficit. 75 of the 26 billion euros of the plan will be well spent as planned in 2009 and the remainder in 2010 yesterday assured François Fillon. Some credits are going to do this, subject to redeployment: measures such as the State procurement advances are less expensive than expected, in contrast to the premium in the case, for example. But if the execution of the plan is generally consistent, the Government proposes to extend or, at least, to stop very progressive way to exceptional measures to reach maturity at December 31.

"Case by case basis".

The crisis is indeed still in news, the situation on the labour market to stay poor in 2010. The necessity of not too soon rein in the dynamics of stimulus has been one of the messages expressed this weekend in London during the G20 meeting. "The transition period is extremely fragile." "It should not break the machine," stressed Sunday the economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, stressing "it should implement the stimulus plan up to 100 and then out on the edge of the foot and not brutally withdraw".The Prime Minister chaired a meeting of Ministers on this subject yesterday. "It is not to launch a second recovery plan but extended in the case of particularly effective measures for the economy", said Prime Minister's Office.

The Secretary of State for employment Laurent Wauquiez, defends the retention of the full exemption of hirings in corporations less loads from 10 employees. An abrupt interruption January 1 seems today excluded: the debate on an extension of six months or a year and a new calibration of the device (see below). Christine Lagarde argues that companies could still receive early repayment of the tax credit research in 2010. But such a gesture, which would represent more than 1 billion euros of cash, must be weighed against the business tax reform (which will "alleviate" companies of about 10 billion in 2010), considers Matignon.

The Secretary of State for housing, Benoist Apparu, defends his side the maintenance of the bonus of the zero rate loan (amount of the loan, revenue cap). Should be partially successful, the idea being to not return only gradually to the "normal" system The reasoning is the same for the premium in the case, the Government wanting to avoid a blow of sudden brake of the auto market in January: amount (1,000 euros) will be gradually reduced (read below). The continuation of the prepayment of VAT for local communities however is not determined at this stage, but it seems difficult to go back without draining liquidity from local communities.

Expensive devices

François Fillon wants, globally, promote a landing soft stimulus measures by avoiding prolonged forever of expensive devices. For many of them (facilities of cash for business, premiums and one-time tax cuts for households), the question does not arise: 2010 will mark the return to normal. And the Government does not, at this stage contemplate new measures of purchasing power: inflation is low, the consumer takes the shock and the active solidarity income will rise in power. It is the support that will be the priority posted budget 2010 presented on 30 September, via the business tax reform and the increase in the budget of the mission employment. The great loan will mark the next step, to address the potential growth of the France, already relatively step low and is unscathed from the crisis.